
The Fair Card Trick
A deck full of surprises!
Probability ยท Class 10

The Fair Card Trick
A deck full of surprises!
Cardville. Momo plays in the park.
Momo: Iโll count the cards. Easy peasy!
Baron Blunder: This card game looks fair. But itโs not.
Momo: I count. 50 cards. 48 win?
Winning cards
Count all cards first
Winners from total divide
Chance of winning found
Momo: I count all cards, then winners. Probability tells me my chances!
Baron Blunder: Not 48. More like 40!
Momo: I count 50 cards. 40 win. Thatโs 40 winners รท 50 cards = 0.8
40 รท 50 = 0.8
0.8 = 80% chance
I win 80% of the time!
Remember these
Probability = Winners รท All cards
Always divide to find it
Percentage is 100 times the result
Momo: Always divide winners by all cards. Then multiply by 100 for percent!
Your turn, hero!

Momo has 15 cards. 12 win. Whatโs the chance as a %?
80%. 12 รท 15 = 0.8. 0.8 ร 100 = 80%
Baron Blunder: Gee, Momo, 1 minus 20% wins. 80% lose! Gasp
24 cards. 18 win. Whatโs the %?
75%. 18 รท 24 = 0.75. 0.75 ร 100 = 75%
The final battle

If 5 cards win, how many must be total for 20% to win?
25. 5/total = 20/100 โ total = 5 ร 5 = 25
Baron Blunder: You get 80%! Losing is 100%-80! 12 cards win! Boo
Momo: 12 of 15 cards win. 12 รท 15 = 0.8, so that is 80%!
Cards in the deck, safely saved.
The End?

Villain card won! Answer again in a few days and it turns gold.
Remember
But where are Baron Blunderโs cards from? Hmmm
A comic book about Probability. Follow Momo, learn the idea, and answer three questions to beat Baron Blunder.